A New Revolution In Iran

A second revolution in Iran would have great implications on the rest of the region today. If the protests calling for new elections and more freedom in Iran succeed the geopolitical map of the Middle East could well be redrawn.

Think of the implications for a minute, starting with Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Israel, the Gulf and beyond.

Iraq: a more moderate regime in Tehran would be less intrusive in the internal affairs of its neighbour and would rebalance the political 
Sunni-Shia equation.

A change of regime in Iran would not necessarily mean that Tehran would turn its back on its fellow Shias in Iraq, but if a government that is friendlier to the West takes over from the ruling theocracy run by the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and relations with the United States in particular are amended, Shia groups such as the Mehdi Army run by Moqtada Sadr, would have a much harder time.Syria: a regime change in Tehran, again on condition that it is more friendly to the West and open to rejoining the international community, would place into question the current relationship between Syria and Iran.

In the event that Tehran and Damascus drift apart as a result of a second revolution in Iran, it would place the government of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in a precarious situation, leaving the Syrians once again out of the cold.

In Lebanon: a change in Tehran, once more with the caveat that the changes are significant enough for Iran to redraw its foreign policy, particularly as regards to its support given to groups considered to be ‘terrorist organisations' by the United States Department of State. Among the groups who will be most affected is the Lebanese Shia organisation, Hezbollah, who depends largely for its resources, financial and military on Iran. Should the new regime in Teheran decide to pull the plug on Hezbollah, or at least stop funding its military wing, the impact on Lebanese internal politics would be greatly felt.

Palestinian territories: similarly as in Lebanon, in Palestine, in the event of the Palestinian Islamic resistance, better known as Hamas, being cutoff from the current funding and support it receives from the Islamic Republic would give the government of President Mahmoud Abbas a much-needed boost in the current intra-Palestinian dispute.

Israel: a more moderate regime in Iran would be a welcome relief for Israel who has been at the forefront of threats from the current regime in Tehran, threats which has been taken very seriously in Israel, all the more so since the Islamic Republic has been aggressively pursuing to develop nuclear military capability.

Changes in the regime in Iran, especially if they knew the leadership agrees to freeze the current race to develop nuclear capabilities undertaken by the leadership in place today would alleviate the pressure on Israel today.

Indeed, such a change would contribute greatly towards avoiding an escalation in the Middle East conflict that would come about as a result of an eventual Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

A more moderate regime in Iran would also mean revisiting what the United States has been accusing the current regime in Iran, and supporting international terrorism.

Last, but by no means least, a new regime in Tehran would be most welcome in the Gulf, where a number of countries have been looking nervously across the waterway nervously as Iran inches closer to becoming a nuclear power.